Bill Gross on Inflation and Kevin Phillips’ “Bad Money”
PIMCO’s Bill Gross devotes his June Investment Outlook to “the debate about the authenticity of U.S. inflation.” Gross says that this debate “has been joined by the press and astute authors such as Kevin Phillips.” (Gross calls Phillips’ new book “Bad Money,” which was excerpted in a recent Harper’s article, “as good a summer read detailing the state of the economy and how we got here as an ‘informed’ American could make.”)
Gross describes a study that compares U.S. inflation with that of 24 other nations:
These representative countries, chosen and graphed by Ed Hyman and ISI, have averaged nearly 7% inflation for the past decade, while the U.S. has measured 2.6%. The most recent 12 months produces that same 7% number for the world but a closer 4% in the U.S.
This isn’t a conspiracy blog and there are too many statisticians and analysts at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and Treasury with rapid turnover to even think of it. I’m just concerned that some of the people are being fooled all of the time and that as an investor, an accurate measure of inflation makes a huge difference.
Another view of this issue from a consumer perspective suggests that the average consumer/investor/voter may not be as oblivious as Gross fears. This article dismisses the seeming discrepancies in inflation numbers as “technical quibbles,” in contrast to Gross who suggests that inflation is deliberately (or conveniently) understated.
The ultimate impact of the current inflation – however well it is measured – is likely to be much more profound than the Fed or other policymakers are letting on.
Thomas Kuh also contributed to this article.
