I discovered this curve on Xigi.net, a social networking site. It shows where different market sectors or drivers behind sustainable development reside on the continuum of 1) acceptance in the mainstream, 2) visibility to the public eye, and 3) maturity as a social enterprise.

A good friend who used to work in the carbon offsets sector commented to me that this curve should be thought of as a zoomed-in pixel of a larger graph showing major social shifts in the twentieth century (think 1960’s, vietnam, civil rights). The larger wave is building very strongly right now and this wave (from xigi) will break on top of the broader, deeper and stonger wave as we shift toward a more sustainable mode of living.

From the article in Xigi.net:

“A “social trigger” occurs when some new way of creating both social and financial value is developed and begins to spread. New social enterprises are born and some level of acceptance of the idea emerges among a group of insiders. This initial success may or may not be driven by a new technology. In many cases such as microfinance or fair trade, a new bargain is struck and/or a new series of transactions are created or redefined. In any case this social trigger allows others to see and do things differently that result in the creation of both social and financial value. Attention follows and soon an emerging market sector is born.

Typically this attention follows a curve upward until a level of “peak attention” is reached, most recently exemplified by the way everything has gone “green” - from special popular magazine issues on the subject to the Oscars and Al Gore’s Inconvenient Truth.

Of course from this point there is no place to go but down in terms of attention. It is in this down cycle where the sector shows its mettle. While significant attention usually brings a flow of new money, these new ideas have to actually work or they slowly disappear off the radar. This is the period I call “market acceptance.” The idea either proves to be sustainable or it falls off the chart. If indeed it proves out, a more mature period of expansion and development occurs supported by smart money. In the case of clean technology for example, this has meant a quadrupling of venture investment in the last six years. Ultimately the acceptance of the idea becomes so commonplace that “market liquidity” develops as it has with the affordable housing market.”

To view the full article by Mark Beam, click here.